Merrimack Warriors vs Appalachian State Mountaineers 6:00 AM Eastern
These are two very slow tempo teams as Merrimack was 357th in possessions per game while Appalachian State was 349th. Merrimack turned only 22.5% of their missed shots into an offensive rebound, which was 339th in the country and the team was overall 216th in points per possession on offense while Appalachian State was 206th in points per possession on offense last season.
Pick: Merrimack vs Appalachian State Under 134.5 (Greg's Handicapped Total 127.5)
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Murray State Racers 11:30 AM Eastern
Tennessee State brings in an mid-major all star lineup headlined by former top 20 recruit Aaron a to further elevate a team that went to the NCAA Tournament last season and was 54th in points per possession allowed on defense last season. Murray State should have an explosive offense with the return of Roman Domon from last season after averaging 14.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game on 36.8% 3-point shooting while George Washington transfer Christian Jones had 10 points, three rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.1 steals per game on 36.4% 3-point shooting. Murray State forced opponents to take 72.7% of their field goal attempts from 2-point range last season, the second highest percentage in the nation, but Tennessee State was 22nd in percentage of field goal attempts that were 2-point shots.
Pick: Tennessee State +10.5 (Greg's Handicap Tennessee State +6)
Air Force Falcons vs. Wright State Raiders 7:00 PM Eastern
While Air Force has a new coach in Joe Crispin, they have largely the same roster from a season ago from a team that was 363rd in points per possession on offense, 352nd in points per possession on defense, and 354th in rebound percentage. Wright State loses four of their top five scorers from last season from a team that was 55th in points per possession on offense, but shouldn't take a huge step back with the addition of C.J. O'Hara, who had 14.1 points and a steal per game at UW Green Bay last season.
Picks: Wright State -9.5 and Under 159.5 (Greg's Handicap Wright State -13.5 and Total 145.5)
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers 7:30 PM Eastern
Gonzaga gets Braden Huff back from injury, who averaged 17.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game before missing the end of the season due to injury and was a top five player in the nation’s top in points per minute score. While Purdue loses much of last season’s core, they do have CJ Cox back after averaging 8.5 points per game last season and should be stronger both on defense and down low with 7-foot-4 junior Daniel Jacobson likely to play a huge role for this team.
Picks: Purdue +5.5 (Greg's Handicap Purdue +1)
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs Mississippi State Bulldogs 7:30 PM Eastern
Tennessee Tech brings in former Fairleigh Dickinson and Iona coach Tobin Anderson as their new coach and look to Stonehill transfer Davante Hackett to uplift the offense after he had 13.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game last season with 26.4 points per game in the final five games. Josh Hubbared is back for Mississippi State after averaging 22.1 points, 3.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game on 34.7% 3-point shooting last season while TK Simpkins enters from Oregon after averaging 12.5 points and 2.4 assists per game on 34.7% 3-point shooting.
Picks: Mississippi State -17.5 and Under 157.5 (Greg's Handicap Mississippi State -26 and Total 154)
Denver Pioneers vs. Wisconsin Badgers 7:30 PM Eastern
While Denver had a solid offense last season, ranking 48th in points per possession and bring back top scorer Carson Johnson is back after averaging 20.1 points and three assists per game on 41.4% 3-point shooting, this team was 360th in points per possession allowed and figure to get destroyed in the post by returning forwards Nolan Winter and Austin Rapp. Wisconsin also elevates their offense with freshman Owen Foxwell entering from Australia as a 23 year old with 11.1 points, 4.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per game on 35.2% 3-point shooting.
Pick: Wisconsin -23.5 (Greg's Handicap Wisconsin -30.5)
Southern Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs 8:00 PM Eastern
SMU is a team that is not shy to run, ranking 53rd in possessions per game and 37th in points per possession on offense while Southern was 36th in total possessions per game and both teams were lackluster on defense with SMU 195th in points per possession allowed on defense last season and Southern 259th. SMU additionally should have lots of explosivness with adding Tulane guardafter averaging 19.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game on 36% 3-point shooting last season.
Pick: Southern vs. SMU Over 157.5 (Greg's Handicapped Total 164.5)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. BYU Cougars 9:00 PM Eastern
Ohio State was a slow tempo team last season, ranking 269th in possessions per game and face a BYU team that will have Michigan State’s top rebounder from a season ago Jaxon Koehler eligible for this game. Ohio State was 55th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage last season at 31.8% while BYU was 269th at 35.3% but Ohio State was 212th in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing only 27.4% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound.
Picks: Ohio State +3.5 and Under 160.5 (Greg's Handicap Ohio State +2 and Total 156)
Montana Grizzlies vs. Oregon Ducks 10:00 PM Eastern
With Dana Almtan retiring in October, Tony Stubblefield, who has a career 30-66 coaching record, is the Ducks current coach while Montana ranked 13th in road free throw shooting percentage last season at 79% and look to wings Tyler Thompson and Kenyon Aguino to lead the team. Thompson had 8.4 points and four rebounds per game on 40.1% 3-point shooting as a starter while Aguino had 8.4 points and 4.2 rebounds per game as a sixth man and the team needs more ball security after ranking 341st in turnover per possession. Subblefield's most recent team, the 2023-24 DePaul Blue Demon, were 318th in turnovers per possession on defense.
Pick: Montana +17.5 (Greg's Handicap Montana +11.5)
