With the onset of the NFL season, predictions, projections, and fantasy drafts are front and center. Our unique approach to ranking fantasy football players leverages Vegas-based rankings, stemming from season-long player prop over/unders, to highlight deviations from where players are being ranked and drafted to help you find value. The idea is simple and similar to a lot of EV betting methodology - why trust individual experts when you can trust markets where people can put actual money on it?
The wisdom of the crowds has long been smarter than individuals and fantasy football is no different. These Vegas-based rankings are meant to be used as median rankings largely for the first 7-9 rounds rather than give insight to sleepers and highly volatile late-round draft picks. Let's explore the nuances and the main discrepancies we found with the Vegas-based rankings vs ADPs (Average Draft Position) and consensus rankings.
Methodology
Our Vegas-Based Rankings take season-long player prop over/unders that various sportsbooks offer and convert them into projected fantasy points. For example, if Draftkings has a wide receiver’s over/under at 60 catches, 1000 yards and 5 touchdowns he will be projected 130 points in non-PPR and 190 points in full PPR leagues. We are then able to rank players vs. others at their position by who is projected to score more points. In our overall rankings, we adopt the acclaimed model used by FantasyPros, employing VOLAS (value over last available starter) and VORP (value over replacement player) to adeptly factor in positional scarcity.
While most of the Vegas based rankings are relatively similar to where fantasy experts rank and fantasy players are drafting guys, there are a few key differences that stand out positionally and bigger picture. I dive into a few of them below:
Undervalued RBs:
The Dolphins duo of De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are both big question marks for next season, but for very different reasons. Vegas is very high on the Dolphins duo relative to the fantasy world. While both running backs thrived last season putting up phenomenal fantasy performances, Mostert is 32 years old and is entering a period of decline for most running backs. Besides last season, Mostert had never previously put together a 1,000-yard rushing season. On the other hand, Achane is a young running back who was a third-round rookie selection last year. He put up 800 yards on the ground but suffered multiple injuries, raising questions about whether he’ll be able to stay healthy through the season. Achane is the 16th-ranked PPR RB on ESPN (14th on Fantasy pros) and 33rd average ADP on ESPN. We have him as the 11th running back in PPR and 17th pick overall, making him a huge steal in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts. Raheem Mostert is in the low 20s across formats in the Vegas-based rankings vs. 33rd in the ESPN expert rankings.
We have Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall as by far and away the first and second picks. While they do tend to go 1 and 2 or close to it the Vegas rankings seem to be more firm in this with a large separation between them and anyone else in all formats.
Like the running backs, ESPN and Vegas mainly agree on their wide receiver lists; however, there are a few players that the lists view differently.
Overvalued WR:
Chris Olave started his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Despite this, ESPN and Vegas cannot agree on whether he will continue this trend or if the rocky quarterback play for the Saints will cause him to have a shaky third season. Olave is ranked 9th in PPR for ESPN, but in the mid teens for Vegas. The difference is driven by both yards and TDs. FantasyPros has him at 6.5 TDs and ESPN projections have him at 6 while he is 5.5 everywhere with the best price for the over being -105. Olave’s yards projections are 1,204 on FantasyPros and 1,264 yards on ESPN with Draftkings as low as 1,025 yards for Olave. His ADP on ESPN is 20th even though we have him as the 36th in PPR drafts and 48th in standard drafts. Due to WR differences and his positional difference, we have Olave as the most overdrafted player on the board.
Undervalued WR:
Mike Evans was our big undervalued player last year and really came through for us. He is undervalued again this year (not nearly as much) with his ADP and rank being in the 13-15 range everywhere while we have him in the 8-11 range.
Overvalued QB:
Anthony Richardson is 5th on the ESPN rankings vs.10th in the Vegas based Rankings. His over/unders are lower than his projections across the board with no one category standing out. Perhaps Vegas is predicting more of a sophomore slump than the fantasy world.
Undervalued QB:
Dak Prescott stands out as undervalued as the Vegas based rankings have him as the 4th QB while the ESPN staff and ADP have him as the 8th QB. Seems the negativity associated with his name has helped make Dak be undervalued in fantasy drafts.
Tight End:
Vegas based rankings have Sam Laporta as ranked higher than Travis Kelce in all formats (although it is very close). Kelce is being drafted 8 spots higher on ESPN on average and is ranked number 1 on most fantasy sites.
Overall:
The biggest takeaway from the overall rankings is we see RBs as being a bit undervalued in fantasy drafts. This may be on the heels of the fantasy world continuing to devalue the position. We have 7 of the top 10 picks being RBs and 13 of the top 20 in ½ PPR drafts. ESPN ADP has 4 of the top 10 and 9 of the top 20 picks being RBs. Other than that, nothing really stands out. Similar to last year, we have QBs as a bit undervalued in standard formats and a bit overvalued in PPR formats. The fantasy world seems to struggle to adjust to different scoring systems relative to value based drafting ones.
*A few guys are missing from the rankings because there were no odds for them like Gibbs, Herbert, and Engram. It is not because they weren’t high enough.
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