With the onset of the NFL season, predictions, projections, and fantasy drafts are front and center. Our unique approach to ranking fantasy football players leverages Vegas-based rankings, stemming from season-long player prop over/unders, to highlight deviations from where players are being ranked and drafted to help you find value. The idea is simple and similar to a lot of EV betting methodology - why trust individual experts when you can trust markets where people can put actual money on it?
The wisdom of the crowds has long been smarter than individuals and fantasy football is no different. These Vegas-based rankings are meant to be used as median rankings largely for the first 7-9 rounds rather than give insight to sleepers and highly volatile late-round draft picks. Let's explore the nuances and the main discrepancies we found with the Vegas-based rankings vs ADPs (Average Draft Position) and consensus rankings.
Methodology
Our Vegas-Based Rankings take season-long player prop over/unders that various sportsbooks offer and convert them into projected fantasy points. For example, if Draftkings has a wide receiver’s over/under at 60 catches, 1000 yards and 5 touchdowns he will be projected 130 points in non-PPR and 190 points in full PPR leagues. We are then able to rank players vs. others at their position by who is projected to score more points. In our overall rankings, we adopt the acclaimed model used by FantasyPros, employing VOLAS (value over last available starter) and VORP (value over replacement player) to adeptly factor in positional scarcity.
Each week this season, ThePromoguy will analyze hundreds of player prop lines available at sportsbooks and in Vegas to formulate his Vegas-Based Fantasy Football Rankings. These rankings are trusted by thousands of winning fantasy football players around the world.
Beyond fantasy rankings, ThePromoguy also shares insights and bets for various promotions and boosts on sportsbooks around the US. You can see follow him on Twitter or on Pikkit. Not signed up for Pikkit yet? Sign up here to join the ultimate sports betting community and track your picks.
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