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A moneyline bet is a wager on which team or side will win a game outright, with no point spread involved. The favorite is listed with a minus sign (e.g., -180) and the underdog with a plus sign (e.g., +150). Moneyline odds are the most common way to express odds in US sports betting, and they're the foundation for understanding payouts across every other bet type.
This guide covers how moneyline odds work, how to read them, how the payout math actually plays out, and when betting the moneyline is a better play than the spread or total.
A moneyline bet is the simplest wager in sports betting: pick the team you think will win the game. The score doesn't matter. The margin of victory doesn't matter. The only question is whether the team or side you picked wins.
Because moneyline bets don't involve a point spread, sportsbooks have to adjust the odds to reflect each team's chance of winning. A heavy favorite that's likely to win 80% of the time can't pay even money, so the sportsbook prices the favorite at a number that requires you to risk more than you'd win. The underdog, which is less likely to win, pays more than your stake when it does.
Every other bet type in sports betting (spreads, totals, parlays, props) is priced in moneyline odds underneath. Understanding moneylines is the foundation for understanding everything else.
US sportsbooks display moneyline odds in American format, which uses positive and negative numbers anchored to a $100 base.
Favorites are listed with a minus sign (e.g., -180). The number tells you how much you need to bet to win $100. A -180 favorite means you have to wager $180 to profit $100. The bigger the negative number, the heavier the favorite. A -800 favorite would require you to risk $800 to win $100.
Underdogs are listed with a plus sign (e.g., +150). The number tells you how much you would win if you bet $100. A +150 underdog returns $150 in profit on a $100 stake. The bigger the positive number, the bigger the underdog. A +400 underdog returns $400 on a $100 stake.
Even money is +100 or -100. When two teams are evenly matched, the sportsbook prices both sides at roughly the same number. A +100 bet doubles your stake if it wins. You'll occasionally see this on tightly matched games or when a sportsbook offers a promotional boost.
For a deeper breakdown of all the odds formats, see our sports betting glossary entry on American odds.
The math behind moneyline payouts isn't complicated once you know the formula.
For favorites (negative numbers): Profit = (Stake / Odds) × 100
A $50 bet at -200 returns: ($50 / 200) × 100 = $25 in profit, for a total payout of $75 ($50 stake + $25 profit).
For underdogs (positive numbers): Profit = (Stake × Odds) / 100
A $50 bet at +180 returns: ($50 × 180) / 100 = $90 in profit, for a total payout of $140 ($50 stake + $90 profit).
A few quick reference points worth memorizing:
A $100 bet at +100 returns $100 profit. A $100 bet at +200 returns $200 profit. A $100 bet at -200 requires $200 risked to win $100.
Most sportsbooks calculate this for you automatically when you enter a stake. But understanding the math is what lets you compare odds quickly across sportsbooks during line shopping.
Every moneyline price translates directly to an implied probability. Knowing how to convert odds to implied probability is the difference between betting reactively and betting strategically.
For favorites: Implied Probability = Odds / (Odds + 100)
A -180 favorite has an implied probability of 180 / 280 = 64.3%. The sportsbook is essentially saying "this team should win about 64% of the time."
For underdogs: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
A +150 underdog has an implied probability of 100 / 250 = 40%. The sportsbook is saying "this team should win about 40% of the time."
If you think a team's real chance of winning is higher than the implied probability, you have a +EV bet. If you think the real chance is lower, the bet is a bad value regardless of which team you think will win. Most sharp bettors don't ask "who do I think will win," they ask "is the moneyline mispricing the actual probability?"
The moneyline is one of three foundational bet types in sports betting. Each answers a different question about the game.
Moneyline asks who will win the game outright. Best for situations where you have a strong read on the winner but the spread is too big to feel confident covering.
Point spread asks whether the favorite will win by more than the listed margin. Best for closer matchups where the moneyline doesn't pay enough to take a heavy favorite but you still like one side.
Total (over/under) asks whether the combined score will be above or below a number. Best when you have a read on game pace, scoring environment, or weather but no strong lean on which team wins.
The moneyline mechanics are universal, but how you should think about moneylines varies significantly across sports.
NFL moneylines typically range from -700 favorites to +500 underdogs in extreme mismatches, with most regular-season games sitting in the -150 to +130 range. NFL has the most game-by-game variance of any major sport, which makes underdog moneyline value more frequent than people realize.
NBA moneylines can stretch to -1500+ on extreme favorites because of the league's stratified talent. Heavy NBA favorites rarely offer +EV moneyline value because the juice is enormous. Most sharp NBA moneyline plays are on underdogs at +130 or longer.
MLB moneylines are unique because baseball has higher variance than other major sports. Even the best teams playing the worst teams are rarely priced above -300. Plus-money underdog moneylines (+130 to +200) hit often enough that they're a legitimate strategy. The MLB bet types guide covers this in more depth.
NHL moneylines range from -300 favorites to +250 underdogs in typical games, with the puck line (-1.5/+1.5 spread) as the spread alternative. Hockey moneyline favorites are particularly hard to grind out profit on because the sport's variance is high.
Soccer moneylines are different from every other major US sport because they're typically 3-way, meaning you can bet on either team to win or the draw. Each outcome has its own moneyline price. This changes the math significantly because a draw is a real outcome rather than an edge case.
A few facts about moneyline pricing worth understanding:
Heavy favorites carry high break-even thresholds. A -300 moneyline implies a 75% win rate. To profit at that price over a meaningful sample, a bettor would need to outperform 75%. A -500 moneyline pushes that threshold to roughly 83%. The deeper a favorite is priced, the higher the win rate required just to break even.
Moneyline prices vary across sportsbooks. The same game can be -150 at one book and -135 at another. The gap reflects different oddsmakers weighing the matchup slightly differently. Over hundreds of bets, line shopping for the best moneyline on every game compounds into meaningful EV.
Implied probability is the underlying math. Every moneyline price translates directly to a percent chance of winning. The earlier section in this guide covers the conversion formulas. Understanding implied probability is what turns a moneyline from an intuitive read ("this team should win") into a comparison ("is the price better or worse than the actual chance?").
Moneylines and spreads price the same outcome differently. A -500 moneyline favorite pays roughly $20 in profit for every $100 risked. The same favorite on the spread typically pays closer to even money but requires the team to win by a specific margin. The two bet types reach different payoff structures on the same game outcome.
Like any bet type, moneyline strategy only works if you know whether you're actually profitable. Pikkit's bet tracker breaks down your moneyline performance separately from your spread, total, and parlay performance, so you can see whether your moneyline ROI is genuinely positive or whether you're being subsidized by gains in other bet types.
A bettor with a positive overall ROI but a negative moneyline ROI is leaking money on every moneyline bet, even if the overall account is profitable. Tracking by bet type is the only way to catch that pattern.
Download Pikkit to start tracking your moneyline bets.
A moneyline bet is a wager on which team or side will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the underdog with a plus sign. The score, margin of victory, and total points don't matter. The only thing that determines a moneyline bet's outcome is which side wins.
Moneyline odds in US sportsbooks are shown in American format. A negative number like -180 means you need to wager that amount to profit $100 (favorites). A positive number like +150 means you profit that amount on a $100 bet (underdogs). The bigger the number on either side, the more lopsided the matchup.
A -200 moneyline means you need to bet $200 to win $100 in profit. It's a favorite at roughly 67% implied probability. A $50 bet at -200 would return $25 in profit ($75 total payout). A $100 bet at -200 would return $50 in profit ($150 total payout).
A +150 moneyline means you win $150 in profit on a $100 bet. It's an underdog at roughly 40% implied probability. A $50 bet at +150 would return $75 in profit ($125 total payout). A $100 bet at +150 would return $150 in profit ($250 total payout).
Neither is universally better. Moneyline is best when you're confident about the winner but unsure of the margin, or when betting an underdog where the spread doesn't add enough value. Spread is best when you like a side but the moneyline price is too short to be profitable. Sharp bettors play both depending on the matchup.
Moneyline bets can be profitable if you consistently identify cases where the implied probability is lower than the true win probability. Most casual bettors lose on moneylines because they bet favorites without considering the implied-probability math. Underdog moneylines at +130 or longer tend to offer better long-term value for recreational bettors.
A 3-way moneyline gives three possible outcomes instead of two: team A wins, team B wins, or the game ends in a draw. Soccer is the most common sport for 3-way moneylines because draws are common outcomes. Each side gets its own price, and you have to pick the exact result. 2-way moneylines (used in most other major US sports) treat draws as no-action and either refund the bet or require a tiebreaker scenario.
The moneyline only asks who wins. The spread asks whether the favorite wins by more than the listed margin or the underdog loses by less than the margin (or wins outright). A team can win the game (cash a moneyline bet) but fail to cover the spread, or lose the game outright but cover the spread by losing by less than the margin.
Yes. Moneyline bets can be combined into parlays the same way other bet types can. Each moneyline leg has to win for the parlay to cash. Moneyline parlays are particularly popular for combining multiple underdog moneylines, where the combined odds can produce significant payouts on small stakes.
Moneyline odds move based on betting volume, sharp action, injury news, weather, and lineup changes. If heavy action comes in on the favorite, the sportsbook adjusts the line by shortening the favorite's price (e.g., from -150 to -170) to balance their risk. Major injury or starting-pitcher news can move moneylines dramatically in minutes.
