Limits in the betting world
We see many sportsbook commercials encouraging people to sign up and to bet on their sportsbook. These commercials are largely centered around come and win big on ___ sportsbook. The obvious reality is that most will lose, but the more interesting conversation comes around what happens to the ones that consistently win? I polled my twitter followers and got roughly 4,000 results per sportsbook. While those interested in EV betting (my twitter followers generally are) may not all be profitable (especially with the account having plenty of non EV followers), this probably represents a well above average polling group relative to all gambling users. I am going to break this down into tiers and give my thoughts on each sportsbook and how their take on limits have affected their perception/ market share.
The Majors:
These are the books with the highest market share among sportsbooks in the US and also tend to limit less. This is not a coincidence, if you want to have a far reach you cannot have the “let’s limit them just in case they are a decent bettor” approach. Ultimately, winning bettors still show their friends their bets and spread the word about your book leading to signups on your book. If you are limited you cannot do that and your book will fail to gain traction. In fairness, there is a chicken or egg situation with this as well because books with bigger budgets can afford to be more relaxed with limits. This does not however change the fact that those with the highest market share have benefitted from less limiting relative to their smaller peers.
ESPN:
Promo banned
Yes - 7%
No - 62%
Don't have - 31%
Limited
Yes - 12%
No - 57%
These numbers would definitely be higher if I ran the poll today but still ESPN has done a nice job since coming over from Barstool of adding market share and not going limit crazy. They are also good about not promo banning and have gained significant market share in the months since switching over to ESPN.
Fanduel:
Limited
Yes - 24%
No - 74%
Dont have - 2%
To me, Fanduel is the gold standard as far as limits are concerned. Many would say it is Circa since they do not limit, but Circa does not make themselves nearly as vulnerable as Fanduel does. Fanduel has all sorts of props, live betting, early lines, etc. Many places where they would be exposed to sharp bettors yet they rarely limit and many of the times they do limit it is within reason. Some books limits mean you are basically done there, Fanduels are far less strict. One note is I think the yes number here (and for many of the others but esp Fanduel and DK) is a bit inflated because people thought promo limits were limits.
Draftkings
Limited
Yes - 32%
No - 65%
Don't have - 3%
Draftkings is pretty average for the upper tier with limiting. I do here about less people getting limited these days rather than some stretches in the past so maybe that has been part of their recent marketing push (not that it does previously limited people much good). One note is I think the yes number here (and for many of the others but esp Fanduel and DK) is a bit inflated because people thought promo limits were limits.
Bet365:
Promo banned
Yes - 9%
No - 31%
Don't have - 60%
Limited
Yes - 11%
No - 29%
Don't have - 60%
Bet365 has been decent with limits. Once you are limited there you are pretty screwed though. I think it would benefit them moving to more of a partial limiting system like Fanduel has “Troublesome” users will be more likely to stay on your app but without being able to do too much damage.
Caesars:
Limited
Yes - 11%
No - 66%
Don't have - 23%
Caesars has always done a good job with limits. Lately they have been more aggressive but still the poll numbers above are solid. They have carved out a role of taking larger bets and being nice about limits. If they were a bit more generous to those they do limit, I would put them in or above the FanDuel category.
The Non - Majors:
BETMGM:
Promo banned
Yes - 41%
No - 34%
Don't have - 25%
Limited
Yes - 35%
No - 41%
Don't have - 24%
MGM is a well known casino with seemingly infinite marketing spend. Yet, for some reason they have not gained the traction of their peers. They actually do have plenty of promos, a well known casino in Vegas, are in virtually every (legal) state, and have generally had strong signup promos. The reason their market share is relatively insignificant is that they limit. It is really hard for a book to spread awareness when so many of their customers are unable to place bets there. Over half promo banned and almost half limited makes it tough to get people excited to sign up for your book.
Fanatics:
Promo banned
Yes - 17%
No - 23%
Don't have - 60%
Limited
Yes - 19%
No - 22%
Don't have - 59%
Fanatics has a lot of synergies between their business and sports betting and becoming a widely used sportsbook certainly could have helped the rest of their business even if it meant limiting a few less potentially profitable bettors. That clearly has not happened as the numbers above show nearly half of the people who have Fanatics are promo banned / limited and 60% of my followers don’t even have it.
Generic advice for avoiding limits:
Limits can be a very long or short discussion - the pros and cons of going to great lengths to keep your accounts healthy can be debated and frankly I don’t think this is the place to get into all of it. However, I will give my brief thoughts and a few tips:
From the polls, it is somewhat clear that any form of smart betting puts you in real jeopardy of being limited on the non - major books. There are not too many people making solid money every month on Betrivers, Fanatics, MGM that are not limited. As far as the majors, I generally recommend thinking about if a trader were to look at my account, would they think this is an overly sharp bettor. Obvious glitches are the easiest way to get limited. The next easiest thing is clear arbitrage. Sportsbooks get really hurt by glitches and have little patience for you taking such clear and obvious advantage of them. Arbitrage can also be sniffed out pretty easily - books want you gambling not just taking free money from them. Now some bets that can make your account look friendlier to a trader are moneyline bets on your favorite team (especially when line shopped moneylines can be really low vig and helpful for your account). Other things that tend to be looked upon more kindly are parlays, sgps, etc. If a book sees you betting on Lebron over points/ Lakers moneyline or a HR parlay, you look a lot more like a customer they would want to keep around vs the customer who gets crazy CLV on UAB spread vs temple. One last thing to consider is your unit size. If you are making huge +EV bets then you are more likely to be flagged than someone who is betting smaller. The obvious caveat is that a profitable bettor would be leaving money on the table by betting smaller amounts so this is more about making people aware than general advice. Some would rather make as much as they can until the limits come where others are content to make less in the short term in the hopes that it'll keep them under the radar long term.
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