An SGP, or Same Game Parlay, is a parlay of 2 or more events in the same game. Parlay odds are normally determined by multiplying each of the individual lines. For example, two -110 lines parlayed give out +264 odds (11/21*11/21 = .274. 1/.274 = 3.64 Or +264). SGPs are different because the two events are not independent (in most cases anyway) and there can be positive or negative correlation between them, because of the amount sportsbooks try to charge for the correlation (on top of the vig of the two legs) varies dramatically.
Any vig added on top of the 9.9% 4 way vig of a normal parlay pairing is due to a sportsbook's lack of confidence in their own correlations. (Well that, or they just think they can get away with charging more on SGPs.) Some sportsbooks decide to charge a lot more for their lack of knowledge around correlation than others.
The most important aspect when deciding where to place an SGP is taking the total vig of a two-player market, so we will test this out with an NFL pairing (just to make sure there is no sports bias). We are hoping that the parlays average out to close to +264, as these are main player markets on a major event where the correlation should be relatively known, so the books shouldn't charge much for correlation. Lets see how each book does:
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So there you have it - Fanduel and MGM are by far the worst with nearly double the vig of Bet365. DraftKings, Caesars, and Kambi are in the next tier of charging double the vig of a regular parlay just because it is an SGP. Finally, FanDuel and MGM are telling you they have such little confidence in their ability to account for the correlation between a QB passing yard and a RB rushing yard that they need to charge as if each leg were ~-125 (this would be 23.5% 4 way vig so right in that MGM/Fanduel territory). DK, Kambi, and Caesars are less embarrassing with the lines adjusted from -110 to -118 ish. ESPN and Bet365 are the only sensible ones, charging the vig for each leg of the parlay and a reasonable vig charge for the uncertainty of the correlation coefficient.
This is the reasonable vig tier. Both give plenty of SGP options and from that perspective I don’t have much negative to say.
Bet365:
It is embarrassing that tier 2 has so much vig. Kambi gets knocked down a peg because you can’t do any player double unders. DK gets knocked two pegs because they apply more vig to alts and random pairings.
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Hard Rock:
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It's a 24% 4 way vig for MGM, giving themselves mountains of cushion when it comes to SGPs. The craziest part is they still limit players on SGPs. Imagine needing -125 each way for something as simple as a QB passing yards with their RBs rushing yards, and still not feeling confident enough that you have to limit people!
Fanduel is no better with 22-23% 4 way vig, and they dock you 0.5 run on baseball pushable lines (so under 8 prices as if it were under 8.5 with their rules). FanDuel as the market leader should seriously consider more market-competitive pricing in their SGPs.
The bottom line: if you are blindly betting Same Game Parlays on your favorite sporting events, you should start with Bet365 and ESPN and avoid blindly betting on FanDuel. Pikkit has a cool SGP comparison tool to help you find the best lines!
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