A proposition bet, better known as a prop bet, is a wager that is not directly related to the outcome of a game. Many bettors will typically associate this with player props, a widely bet market. However, prop bets include a lot more possibilities.
Most are familiar with player props, such as "how many rushing yards" or "how many three-pointers made" will a player make in a given game. With the wide range of markets and lines, it is often more likely to find edges on props overspreads, and totals. For a single NFL game, each book needs to account for and set lines for hundreds of player props. It is tougher to be as sharp on each of these lines than it is to set a spread or total, which is just one line that is mostly universal amongst oddsmakers.
Here is an image from our bet tracking app, Pikkit, to show how player prop bets tend to be seen as more "beatable" markets.
As you can see, the prop for Jerrick McKinnon's receiving player prop for the super bowl has a discrepancy amongst various sportsbooks. In sports, it truly is a game of inches where every yard matters for a player prop, so getting the best line is the way to have an edge over the sportsbook.
As we all know, the Super Bowl is the only game on the final weekend of the NFL season. Do you think you can guess if the books have similar discrepancies in the game's spread? Here is another image from our bet tracking app, Pikkit, to answer that question for you.
As you can see, sportsbooks are all in agreement on the Kansas City Chiefs being set at +1.5 for the game, with every book giving the same -110 juice. If a bettor has a perceived edge on a given player prop instead of the game spread, they are more likely to find value in the discrepancies among sportsbooks.
There is another market of proposition bets with little to no edge over the sportsbooks. We often see these pop up for big games like the Super Bowl. Bettors will be able to bet on the length of the National Anthem, the coin toss, the halftime show, the color of the Gatorade bath, and even who the MVP will thank first in their speech.
Here is an image from DraftKings Sportsbook to show just how many novelty prop bets there can be on the Super Bowl. The biggest game of the year draws the most eyes and the most bets.
As you can see, the proposition bet market can go way beyond player props. Bettors are even able to bet on whether or not a kick will hit the upright. According to Bill Krackomberger, a veteran sports gambler, believes certain prop markets are something the sportsbooks are not worried about losing money on.
“The public loves betting these and most don’t have a clue how to beat these types of bets.” (Via Forbes)
So, it is essential to keep prop bets like this more for fun, as there is no true edge to them. For instance, a coin toss is a true 50/50 bet, but some books will offer each side of the prop with the juice of -110. The only true winner on these props is the books that collect the 1o cents from a high volume of bettors on a coin flip, literally. You are better off betting on the coin toss with a 1-to-1 payout with a friend than paying -110 on your sportsbook.
No matter how you bet, what you bet, or the prop bets you choose to play; just remember to be responsible and bet within your means. Also, make sure to track your bets on the Pikkit sports bet app and keep track of your bankroll for long-term success!
